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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    08 Aug 2025, 05:14PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 8, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 8, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. GE Vernova T&D India:

    The stock of this industrial machinery company rose 2.9% over the past week following the announcement of its Q1FY26 results. It reported a 38.3% YoY increase in revenue, driven by a 78% jump in export sales. Net profit more than doubled to Rs 291.2 crore from Rs 134.5 crore in the same period last year, a result of better price realization and rising volumes. Its operating revenue exceeded Forecaster estimates by 6.9%, supported by strong order inflows, 85% of which came from the domestic market. The stock features on a screener of companies with no debt.

    The company’s orderbook for the quarter rose 57% to Rs 1,620 crore driven by a rise in domestic orders. Commenting on the current orderbook, CEO and MD, Sandeep Zanzaria said, “New orders outpaced revenue, expanding the order backlog to Rs 12,960 crore as of June 2025. Most of these orders are for transmission equipment like transformers and reactors. We are also regularly receiving orders from data centers, with current offtake at around the 220 kV level. We expect this to grow to 400 kV as more data centers are built.” 

    Mr. Zanzaria highlighted that the global shift toward energy transition has spurred robust demand from regions including Europe, Australia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. He added, 'We have set a long-term target for exports to comprise 30% of our order backlog and are confident of maintaining this target based on our current pipeline.”

    ICICI Securities notes that India is upgrading its power grid to handle about 900 GW of capacity and plans to source 43% of its electricity from renewables by 2030. As a result, transmission capex is expected to rise following a muted investment cycle during FY20–24. The brokerage estimates a capex of Rs 3.4 lakh crore for inter-state transmission over the next 4–5 years and believes the company is well-positioned to benefit from India’s focus on grid strengthening. ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a higher target price to Rs 3,000 per share.

    2. JSW Steel:

    Thisiron and steel products manufacturer rose 3% on August 4 afterannouncing a Rs 5,845 crore investment with Japanese partner JFE Steel to expand electrical steel production capacity. Once complete, the joint venture’s capacity will increase seven-fold to 3.5 lakh tonnes per annum. Electrical steel, also called grain-oriented steel, is a specialised high-grade steel used in transformers and power equipment.

    Joint MD & CEO Jayant Acharyasaid, “India imports almost 100% of its electrical steel. So, this investment will enable India to become self-reliant and replace imports.” While exports currently contribute just 10% of JSW Steel’s revenue, he sees long-term potential to tap international markets in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, where demand for power infrastructure is rising.

    This expansion forms part of JSW Steel’s Rs 20,000 crore capital expenditureplan for FY26. The company has already spent 20% of this in Q1, mainly toward the ongoing capacity expansion at Vijayanagar, upgrades at Bhushan Power & Steel, other facilities, and mines.

    InQ1FY26, crude steel output rose 14% YoY, while sales volumes grew 9%. Despite this, revenue stood flat and marginally belowForecaster estimates, as softer steel prices and muted exports offset volume gains. The company maintains its full-year sales volume guidance of 28 million tonnes, with Q1 output accounting for just under a quarter of this target.

    Net profit came in ahead of estimates after rising 159% YoY in Q1, driven by a favourable product mix and lower coking coal costs. EBITDA margin improved to 17.5%. Value-added high-margin products contributed to over half of total sales, supporting margins even in a weaker pricing environment.

    Motilal Oswalmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on JSW Steel, with a target price of Rs 1,200. The brokerage highlights domestic demand, an increasing share of premium products, and growth from capacity additions. However, it flags downside risks, including volatility in global steel prices, rising low-cost imports, and execution delays in mining projects.

    3. Emami:

    This personal products maker’s share price increased 6.3% on July 31 following the announcement of its Q1FY26 results. The company’s net profit increased 7.6% YoY to Rs 164.3 crore, driven by lower advertising and inventory-related expenses, and beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 15.3%. Emami features in a screener of companies where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the past month.

    During the quarter, revenue declined marginally by 0.2% YoY to Rs 904.1 crore due to weaker domestic sales. The management highlighted that rural demand held up, due to the early arrival of monsoon and a strong harvest, while urban demand was muted. However, FMCG players are now seeing some green shoots in urban areas after months of slump. Good macro-economic conditions, lower food inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy measures have helped – and the trend is expected to continue through the rest of the fiscal year.

    For Emami, the pain management portfolio, home to brands like Zandu and Mentho Plus, was a key growth driver, up by 17%, due to the early monsoon. It's no surprise that the summer-centric portfolio underperformed, since the premature onset of rains negatively impacted consumption across staples like prickly heat powders. Commenting on this, Mohan Goenka, the Whole-Time Director and Vice Chairman, said, “We expect weakness in our summer portfolio to persist going into Q2FY26, with favourable monsoon conditions likely to reduce seasonal demand.”

    Emami has been focusing on niche, high-margin, and underpenetrated segments, building a strong presence with flagship brands like Boroplus, Navratna, and Zandu, particularly in areas where competitors have yet to see meaningful traction. Looking ahead, the company plans an entry into the nutraceuticals space, betting big on emerging categories such as health foods, nutrition, pet care, aloe-vera-based beverages, and science-backed skincare.

    Dolat Capital has a ‘Reduce’ call on Emami with a lower target price of Rs 610 amid challenges in select categories. However, the brokerage remains optimistic about the company’s long-term growth, noting significant headroom for expansion in rural markets across categories.

    4. Hitachi Energy India:

    Thispower transmission & distribution company fell 3.5% on July 31 following the announcement of itsQ1FY26 results, as the company missedForecaster estimates on revenue and net profit by 22% and 4.6%, respectively. The performance fell shortdue to slower execution in its Rs 29,125 crore order pipeline. However, its revenue grew 11.4% YoY to Rs 1,479 crore and net profit rose nearly eleven-fold to Rs 131.6 crore, driven by higher other income. 

    A key highlight of the quarter was the company booking its highest-ever quarterly order inflow, whichsurged 365% YoY to Rs 11,339 crore, led by the Bhadla-Fatehpur High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) linkproject from Adani Energy. Transmission remained the dominant segment in the order inflow, accounting for over 80% of total orders, while the rail, metro, and data center segments accounted for the rest. 

    Commenting on the order execution, N Venu, MD & CEO of the company,said, “HVDC projects are pretty long, multi-year projects. Our completion period is 48-54 months. So, execution will take time and in the first year, revenues are not much. We expect some amount of revenue starting from the next financial year.” 

    Hitachi Energy Indiaplans to invest Rs 2,000 crore over the next few years to expand capacity across transformers, high-voltage equipment, grid automation, and HVDC systems. The management expects at least two, and potentially up to three, HVDC projects per year to be finalized in the Indian market for bidding over the next three to four years.

    Post results, Motilal Oswalreiterated its ‘Sell’ rating on the stock, citing rich valuations and weaker-than-expected execution despite strong order inflows. It remains positive on Hitachi Energy’s long-term potential, supported by strong demand in transmission and exports, along with capacity expansion plans. But to justify current valuations, the company must deliver consistent execution and margin improvement, especially in large HVDC orders.

    5. ABB India:

    This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer fell 6% on August 4 following the announcement of its Q2CY25 results. Net profit fell 20.7% YoY due to higher raw material costs and currency fluctuations. Revenue increased 12.3% from strong demand in the electrification and robotics segments.

    The company’s revenue and net profit missed Forecaster estimates. New orders in Q2 declined 12% due to delays in customer decision-making and weak domestic demand in the chemicals and oil & gas sectors.

    The company also faced operational challenges in regulatory compliance due to higher imports of electrical components. This increase in costs led to a 3.9 percentage point decline in profit margins to 11.1%.

    Sanjeev Sharma, Managing Director, notes, “We earn 90% of revenue from the domestic market. Forex volatility related to the import of electrical components impacted profitability during the quarter. Over the second half, we expect the domestic demand to improve in infrastructure, real estate, and the data centre business, with easing inflation and a pickup in government and private capex.”

    Commenting on the outlook, T.K. Sridhar, CFO, said, “We remain optimistic about medium-term growth, supported by domestic market demand and a few mid- to large-sized opportunities in the railways and metro segments.” He highlighted that capacity ramp-up in the electrification and robotics segments will meet growing demand and also help the company to sustain the profit margin of 12–15% in CY25.

    Post results, ICICI Securities maintained a ‘Hold’ rating, citing electrification and data centre projects as growth drivers in the medium term. The brokerage highlights that despite weak order inflow in Q2, ABB's order book has remained healthy at Rs 10,060 crore and expects revenue visibility over the next 18 months. The brokerage projects revenue to grow at a CAGR of 12% over FY26-27.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    07 Aug 2025

    Chart of the Week: Mutual funds and FIIs bet big on 11 Nifty 500 stocks in Q1FY26

    By Abdullah Shah

    When mutual funds (MFs) and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) raise their stake in a company, it often signals firm conviction in its long-term growth story. These institutional players typically invest only after deep research into the company and its peers, so their buying rarely goes unnoticed. This screener highlights stocks that saw a QoQ increase of over 2% in both MF and FII holdings in Q1FY26—a potential sign of rising institutional confidence.

    The Economic Times noted, “While FIIs have pared back broadly in 2025, they have sharply increased investments in sectors such as financials, telecom, and services—signalling selective confidence in high-growth segments.” 

    In Q1FY26, eleven Nifty 500 companies saw a rare show of confidence—both mutual funds and FIIs increased their stake by over 2% each. Such parallel buying is often a strong signal of conviction in a company’s growth potential.

    Notably, several of these names come from the financial services space—RBL Bank, KFIN Technologies, and PNB Housing among them. In many cases, promoter exits and a strong earnings outlook opened the door to fresh institutional interest.

    A driver of rising institutional buying in Q1 has been promoter stake sales through block deals, creating liquidity windows that mutual funds (MFs) and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were quick to seize.

    In this week’s Chart of the Week, we spotlight eleven companies—ranging from Vishal Mega Mart, Swiggy, Sagility India, and Sai Life Sciences to InterGlobe Aviation, and PG Electroplast—that have caught the eye of both MFs and FIIs. We break down what’s driving this institutional buying spree.

    Promoter stake sales unlock institutional buying

    Vishal Mega Mart and PG Electroplast’s mutual fund and FII holdings increased after their promoters sold stakes through a block deal. At Vishal Mega Mart, the promoter entity Samayat Services LLP sold a 20% stake worth ?10,488 crore via a block deal in June, following the expiry of the pre-IPO lock-in period. The move triggered a surge of institutional buying, with FIIs raising their stake by 14.3% and mutual funds by 5.8%.

    Among the major domestic investors were HDFC Business Cycle Fund, SBI Equity Hybrid Fund, and Kotak Pioneer Fund, each picking up meaningful stakes. What attracted these investors was the company's strong FY25 performance: revenue rose 20.5%, and net profit grew 36.8%, both ahead of analyst expectations.

    The company’s business model, anchored in a strong presence in tier-2 cities, a diverse and affordable private label portfolio (contributing 73% of revenue), and a lean cost structure, enhanced its appeal. Growth across apparel, general merchandise, and FMCG segments, along with improved inventory efficiency, also boosted investor confidence.

    A similar pattern played out at PG Electroplast. In May, the company’s promoters sold a 5.6% stake for Rs 1,177 crore through a block deal. Institutional interest quickly followed, with FIIs increasing their holding by 2.1% and MFs by 2.6%.

    Key institutional investors included ICICI Prudential Smallcap Index Fund, Government Pension Fund Global, and the Government of Singapore.

    Backed by standout financials in FY25, the company delivered a 77.7% increase in revenue and a 113.3% jump in net profit, far exceeding expectations. Strong demand for its core products—room air conditioners, washing machines, and air coolers—drove top-line growth, while its emphasis on backward integration improved margins and profitability. 

    These gains positioned PG Electroplast as a compelling pick in the consumer electronics manufacturing space.

    IndiGo, operated by InterGlobe Aviation, also saw a rise in institutional holdings in Q1FY26, with mutual funds increasing their stake by 3% and FIIs by 2.2%. Among the major participants were ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF and SBI Resurgent India Opportunities Scheme .

    The airline’s appeal lies in its dominant 64% share of the domestic aviation market during Q1FY26 and its forward-looking expansion strategy. IndiGo has over 900 aircraft on order and plans to expand its international capacity share from 28% to 40% by FY30, factors that have strengthened its long-term investment case among institutions.

    Smart money flows into financial stocks on a bullish outlook

    Institutional investors ramped up their stakes in several financial companies during Q1FY26, driven by strong FY25 earnings, fresh capital raises, and promoter stake exits. The shift reflects growing confidence in the sector’s outlook, particularly in housing finance, asset management, and mid-sized banks.

    KFIN Technologies saw FII holdings rise 5.3% and mutual fund holdings increase 3.3%, following a 10% stake sale by promoter General Atlantic via a block deal in May 2025. The company’s acquisition of Singapore-based Ascent Fund Services in Q4FY25 and plans to grow international revenue have added to investor optimism, despite slightly missing FY25 earnings estimates.

    PNB Housing and Aptus Value Housing also attracted significant institutional interest after large private equity exits. Carlyle sold its entire 10.4% stake in PNB Housing, while Westbridge offloaded a 12.6% stake in Aptus, both through open market deals. In response, 

    FIIs raised their stakes in both companies by 2.7%, while mutual funds increased holdings by 6.7% in PNB Housing and 5.7% in Aptus. Strong FY25 earnings and renewed demand in the retail housing segment have brought these names into the spotlight.

    RBL Bank saw a jump in institutional interest following exits by British International Investment and Unity Associates in April. FIIs increased their stake by 3.1%, while mutual funds added a significant 13.9%. The bank’s better-than-expected FY25 results and a 29% stock rally during the quarter reinforced confidence. Broader trends in the banking sector—such as lower slippages, better asset quality, and steady credit growth—are drawing institutional money back to mid-tier banks.

    Capri Global Capitalraised Rs 2,000 crore in May 2025 through its first qualified institutional placement (QIP) in a decade. Post-issue, FIIs raised their stake by 3.7% and mutual funds by 4.5%. The company’s robust FY25 performance added to the momentum.

    Of the five financial firms, four beat FY25 earnings estimates, with only KFIN Technologies falling slightly short. A mix of earnings strength, large stake sales and capital raises created fresh entry points for long-term investors.

    Post-IPO surge: Institutions load up on Swiggy, Sagility India, Sai Life

    Recently listed companies—Sai Life Science, Swiggy and Sagility India—drew strong institutional interest in Q1FY26 following robust FY25 earnings. All three companies listed in late 2024 have seen FIIs and MFs increase their holdings meaningfully since then.

    Sai Life Sciences, listed in December 2024, saw mutual fund holdings rise 7.2% and FII holdings rise 2.2%. Major MF investors included Nippon India Pharma, Inevsco India Smallcap Fund, and Axis Mutual Fund. The company reported a 15.9% increase in revenue and a 105.5% jump in net profit, beating Forecaster estimates in FY25. Growth was driven by strong performance in the CDMO and CRO segments, along with lower finance and inventory costs.

    Swiggy, which was listed in November 2024, also saw increased institutional interest. MFs raised their stake by 4.3% and FIIs by 2.5% in Q1FY26. Mirae Asset Large & Midcap Fund and Invesco India Flexi Cap Fund each picked up a 1% stake, while the Government Pension Fund Global bought 1.3%. 

    Revenue rose 34.3% in FY25, led by strong growth in food delivery and quick commerce. The company plans to shift its quick commerce segment to an inventory-led model, which could improve margins. CFO Rahul Bothra noted that Swiggy has increased its domestic ownership above 40%, moving closer to the 51% threshold required under FDI rules to operate inventory-led e-commerce businesses.

    Sagility India, also listed in November 2024, reported a 17.7% increase in revenue and a 136.2% jump in net profit for FY25. MFs raised their stake by 4%, and FIIs by 2.6%. ICICI Prudential Technology Fund and Mirae Asset Aggressive Hybrid Fund were among the largest mutual fund investors.

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    The Baseline
    07 Aug 2025
    Modi, Musk, Macron: Why don't Trump's bromances last? | Screener: Stocks beating Forecaster Q1 estimates

    Modi, Musk, Macron: Why don't Trump's bromances last? | Screener: Stocks beating Forecaster Q1 estimates

    We know what a fading friendship looks like. No more funny meme forwards on whatsapp. No more brunch invites. And if things get really bad, you get blocked on Instagram.

    With someone like Donald Trump, one can go from the buddy list to the block list really fast, the journey from hugs to hate messages on Truth Social short and dizzying. Trump is so notorious for this that when he and Elon Musk started hanging out, people started unofficial countdown clocks to see how long the friendship would last. It was not breaking news when it finally imploded into name calling and accusations. 

    With the Trump-Modi relationship the latest one to be on the rocks, we take a look at Trump's bromances, and why they unravel. 

    In this week's Analyticks,  

    • Friend to frenemy: Why Trump's friendships have short expiry dates
    • Screener: Stocks beating Forecaster estimates in Q1 with high target price upsides

    Let's do some armchair analysis.


    Trump's bromances: a timeline

    Trump's various relationships usually start promisingly. Modi and Trump kicked off their relationship with a close hug in early 2017, while French President Emmanuel Macron gave Trump such a firm handshake it left white marks on Trump's hand.

    Elon Musk donated over $288 million to Trump's 2024 election campaign, and gifted Trump a red car. 

    But despite the absence of gifts, the Macron and Modi friendships lasted longer. 

    Macron's relationship with Trump has had several ups and downs - like when they argued during a press conference in 2019 about whether Europe was spending enough money on defence. Trump complained that the US was contributing too much to NATO's defence budget compared to the EU (the US accounted for 22% of the NATO budget). The contribution from the US was later lowered to 16%.

    The Modi relationship in comparison, proceeded  more smoothly - Trump had few complaints about India during his first term, instead calling India "a great friend and ally". The first signs of tension came in the beginning of Trump's second term, when the February 2025 press conference looked awkward and a bit uncomfortable.

    Are the fights about money?

    When Trump picks fights with friends, he claims it is about money. And there are big numbers at stake, according to him. 

    But a closer look at these numbers suggests that Trump's complaints are not based in reality. Trump's recent falling out with Macron this year was based on the claim that the US spent $350 billion on Ukraine aid, much more than Europe. But independent estimates put US aid to Ukraine at $119 billion, and EU aid at $138 billion. The EU has spent more on Ukraine than the US. 

    Similarly, Trump's complaint about India is that we are buying large quantities of Russian oil. He has cited that as the reason he wants to tariff Indian goods further. 

    But again, the facts prove a different story. Europe has purchased large amounts of LNG from Russia, and China has imported $90 billion worth of Russian oil last year, and was its biggest buyer. Trump has been silent regarding Russia related tariffs on both. The US itself imports fertilizers from Russia. 

    Musk failed to deliver on his promise to cut US government costs by $2 trillion. He was only able to deliver around $55 billion in savings. But that's not what caused the falling out.

    Trump cares a lot about headlines 

    All available evidence points to Trump having two core drivers: attention, and money. But attention is something he especially craves. During the years in real estate, when Trump went bankrupt six times, he would often anonymously call the New York tabloids, and offer news about 'Donald Trump' in a fake voice and using a made-up name, hoping for headlines. 

    Attention thirst is the kind that cannot be easily quenched. Today's headline soon becomes yesterday's, and one is hungry for more. Consequently, many of Trump's relationships have fallen apart when he competes with a friend for media coverage. 

    Trump hates being contradicted, and being contradicted in front of the media is a major offence that he doesn't easily forgive - which both Macron and Modi did. At a press event in June this year, when Trump complained again that Europe was providing Ukraine with less funding than the US, Macron interrupted Trump and corrected him. 

    Similarly, after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after Operation Sindoor, Trump said that he had helped negotiate peace. Modi and the Indian government contradicted this claim, saying that the ceasefire was agreed upon exclusively by India and Pakistan without Trump's involvement. But Trump has repeated the claim several times. 

    The Musk-Trump friendship rapidly fell apart not when Musk couldn't cut government spending, but when he publicly criticized Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' and said that Trump would bankrupt the US economy. 

    With Trump, it's always personal

    Trump operates less like a head of state, and more like a don. It's all about personal relationships, and if he feels thwarted, the relationship falters, regardless of the economic value at stake. So when Modi and Macron came in the way of positive attention and a great headline, he got angry. And just like he insulted Macron and Musk ("brain dead" and "crazy" respectively), he rained insults on India ("dead economy"). 

    “The fact that India has been unwilling to publicly acknowledge the US president’s role in the India-Pakistan ceasefire, has really stuck in Trump’s head,” Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment says.

    To get Trump to back down, Modi would need to offer some sweeteners rather than hardening his stance. While the agriculture access the US is pushing for is likely off the table, Modi could offer to remove tariffs on US pharma and LNG imports. US has also been hoping for a defence deal - another sop India could offer. 

    Trump has the bigger economy. But as others have learned, to salvage the relationship, it is the other party that needs to be the bigger person. 


    Screener: Stocks beating Forecaster estimates in Q1FY26 with high analyst target price upside

    Banking & finance stocks beat Forecaster estimates in Q1FY26

    With the Q1FY26 results season in full swing, we look at stocks that surpassed estimates with high target price upside potential according to Forecaster. This screener shows stocks that beat Forecaster estimates in Q1FY26, with high Forecaster 12-month target price upside %.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the life insurance, capital markets, banks, consumer electronics, and IT consulting & software industries. Major stocks are Motilal Oswal Financial Services, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, UTI Asset Management, Amber Enterprises, Anant Raj, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, HDFC Bank, and Indian Bank.

    Motilal Oswal’s Q1FY26 revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates by 96.7% and 77.1%, respectively. This capital markets company’s revenue and net profit grew by 18.4% and 31.8% YoY during the quarter. Improvements in the capital markets, asset & private wealth management, home finance, and treasury investments segments helped with revenue growth. Meanwhile, lower finance, and fees & commission expenses drove profitability. Forecaster estimates the stock price to rise 17.4% over the next 12 months.

    Amber Enterprises also features in the screener after surpassing Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit by 28.9% and 28%, respectively, in Q1FY26. This consumer electronics company’s revenue and net profit jumped by 43.6% and 43.5% YoY, respectively, during the quarter, helping beat estimates. Improvements in the consumer durables, electronics, and railway sub-system & defence businesses, driven by increased demand in the commercial AC segment and strong order execution, drove revenue growth. Revenue growth outpaced expenses growth, which helped increase profitability, and Forecaster estimates the stock price to grow 9.1% over the next year.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    06 Aug 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 6, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 6, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. InterGlobe Aviation (Indigo):

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this airlines stock with a target price of Rs 6,900, a 19.4% upside. Indigo’s capacity, measured by available seat kilometres (ASK), rose 17% YoY in Q1. The company expects slower growth in Q2 due to seasonal factors and maintenance work. However, management says a ramp-up is coming in the second half, as new aircrafts enter the fleet and grounded planes return to service.

    Analyst Sumant Kumar also expects a stronger recovery in the second half of the year, supported by new aircrafts, more international flights, rising business travel, and a higher number of weddings than last year. He also notes that Indigo is benefiting from lower fuel prices and a reduction in costly short-term aircraft leases, both of which supported profit growth in Q1.

    Indigo is moving to finance leases, where it can own the aircraft at the end of the lease term, rather than relying on expensive short-term leases. This gives it more control over its fleet and supports its plan to build in-house maintenance capabilities. Kumar expects the company’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 9% and 18.2% over FY26–27.

    2. Jio Financial Services:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to 'Buy' on this financial firm with a target price of Rs 361, an 8.5% upside. In Q1FY26, the company’s net interest income rose 22.9% YoY to Rs 514 crore, supported by higher operational income. However, total expenses more than tripled as Jio Credit borrowed from external markets to fund its expansion, leading to higher finance costs. As a result, net profit grew just 3.8% during the quarter.

    Jio Fin Serv is focusing on secured lending in FY26 to manage its risks better and build long-term growth. This approach is already showing results, with Jio Credit (its lending arm) logging a 54X YoY growth in its loan book, to Rs 11,665 crore in Q1FY2.

    Analyst Gopika Gopan notes that the company’s joint venture, Jio BlackRock Asset Management, got the green light to begin operations in May 2025. It quickly launched its first fund, which received strong interest from both institutional and retail investors. She expects Jio Fin Serv’s NII to grow at a CAGR of 25% over FY26–27.

    3. TVS Motor Co:

    Axis Direct upgrades its rating to 'Buy' on this 2-wheeler company with a target price of Rs 3,085, an upside of 3.4%. TVS Motors posted its highest-ever exports at 3.7 lakh units in Q1FY26. With domestic sales slowing, analyst Shridhar Kallani notes that rising exports are helping support overall business. Demand in Sri Lanka and Nepal is improving, and Latin America offers strong potential for growth. Exports now contribute nearly 28% of TVS’s total revenue.

    The company’s revenue rose 20% YoY in Q1, driven by higher sales and better pricing. Net profit grew 35%, helped by a PLI incentive and slightly higher other income. Both revenue and profit were above Forecaster estimates.

    Norton, a British motorcycle subsidiary of TVS, will begin commercial production in the second half of this fiscal year, with full-scale launches in Europe by FY27, followed by India. Kallani notes that this move will help TVS enter high-margin premium bike segments while also boosting its global visibility and sharing advanced technology across models.

    Analysts expect domestic demand to also improve in the coming months, supported by a normal monsoon, the festive season, rising consumption, and a stronger replacement cycle. Tax reliefs announced in the Union Budget are also likely to boost spending.

    4. GE Vernova T&D India:

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this industrial machinery maker with a target price of Rs 3,000, a 6.4% upside. In Q1FY26, the company's revenue rose 38.7% YoY to Rs 1,346.4 crore, and net profit grew 116.5%, supported by higher exports and strong project execution.

    Analysts Mohit Kumar and Mahesh Patil note that the government plans to upgrade power transmission lines to 900 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, up from 485 GW, by 2030, with an investment of Rs 3.4 lakh crore to meet rising power demand. They expect this investment in transmission projects to drive GE Vernova's order book in the medium term.

    Management expects Power Grid Corporation to launch two high-voltage direct current (HVDC) contracts in FY26 with an order potential of over Rs 17,000 crore. Analysts note that the company's order book doubled to Rs 13,000 crore in Q1FY26 and expect strong revenue visibility over the next 18–24 months. They believe GE Vernova is well-positioned to benefit from upcoming domestic and export orders and expects its revenue to grow by 25% over FY26–28.

    Sandeep Zanzaria, CEO, notes, “We plan to invest Rs 250 crore to expand manufacturing capacity for HVDC valves and control units amid rising demand from Asia, the Middle East, Korea, and Europe markets. We expect exports to account for 30% of the total order book in the long term, compared to 14% now.”

    5. Voltamp Transformers:

    Prabhudas Lilladhar maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this heavy electrical equipment player with a target price of Rs 10,285, a 21.2% upside. In Q1FY26, revenue declined 1% YoY to Rs 423.5 crore due to lower order billing and higher employee costs, while net profit rose marginally to Rs 79.5 crore, supported by an increase in other income.

    Analysts Amit Anwani and Prathmesh Salunkhe note that the company's order book increased 18.3% YoY to Rs 1,260 crore in Q1FY26 due to the execution of orders with shorter delivery timelines of under nine months. This helped the company secure a higher order book and reduced supply chain uncertainty. 

    Management expects to see strong demand for power transformers, helped by rising public and private sector capital expenditure across data centres, cement, oil & gas, and the green energy industry. Analysts note that to meet this growing demand, Voltamp is ramping up its 6,000 megavolt-ampere (MVA) capacity with a Rs 200 crore investment, expected to be operational by Q1FY27.

    Analysts expect rising competition in 220-kilovolt (kV) power transformers and higher capacity additions to stabilise Voltamp's EBITDA margin at around 18.9% over the medium term. They also expect its strong market position in industrial transformers and strong demand momentum to grow a revenue CAGR of 11% by FY27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    01 Aug 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 1, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 1, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Gravita India:

    Thisrecycling company rose 3% on July 29 after announcing its Q1results. Revenue went up 17% YoY, outperformingForecaster estimates, driven by higher volumes and a better product mix. Net profit also came in ahead of estimates, rising 39% YoY.

    Chairman and MD Rajat Agrawal credited the aluminium recycling business for this outperformance,saying, “Our aluminium business has contributed significantly, with profitability across the value chain: from scrap procurement to ingot manufacturing and downstream products.”

    The companygets 90% of its revenue from lead recycling, and the remaining from aluminium and plastics. Aluminium was the clear outperformer in Q1, with volumes doubling from a year ago. The lead and plastics businesses remained steady, pushing total volumes up 12% YoY. The revenue share of value-added products improved to 47%, helping EBITDA margins expand to 11.8%.

    Gravita has an ambitiousroadmap: it aims to grow volumes at 25% CAGR and profits at 35% CAGR through FY28. It also plans to double its recycling capacity with a capex of Rs 1,500 crore over the next four years. The company is entering new verticals such as lithium-ion battery, rubber, paper, and steel. Of these, rubber and paper are expected to go live this fiscal year.

    The global business continues to play a big role, contributing over 50% to the topline. Agrawalsaid, “We are working on expanding our overseas recycling facilities, with a focus on Africa and Latin America.” We are also securing new collection and supply partnerships to de-risk procurement and improve operating leverage.

    Axis Securitiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Gravita with a target price of Rs 2,600, implying a 45% upside. It sees the company’s integrated model, rising share of value-added products, and policy support from the government as strong positives. That said, it flags base metal price volatility as a key short-term risk to margins.

    2. Cipla:

    This pharma company gave up its post-result gains after Trump sent a letter to 17 global drugmakers on August 1, asking them to cut US drug prices and match what other countries pay. He also demanded lower prices for existing drugs and guarantees that future medicines will be priced in line with other countries. These moves could hit US revenue for Indian pharma exporters. Cipla earns over a quarter of its revenue from the US.

    The company had jumped over 5% in two sessions following a target price upgrade to Rs 1,651 from Nuvama, with the ‘Hold’ rating maintained. This came after its Q1FY26 results, where net profit rose 10% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates by 7.4% on higher other income and lower depreciation costs.

    Cipla’s revenue rose 5% YoY but fell short of estimates due to a drop in US sales, which came in at $226 million. This was mainly due to weaker sales in its cancer drug Revlimid, while Lanreotide, used for rare tumors, saw flat sales. The company is targeting $1 billion in US revenue by FY27, backed by new product launches in areas like respiratory, cancer, peptides, and biosimilars.

    Cipla’s India business grew 6% in Q1, slower than expected due to a dip in demand for acute therapies (treatments like colds, fevers, and infections), which rose only 4–5%. However, the management expects growth to align with the market over the next 2–3 quarters. MD & CEO Umang Vohra said the company is preparing to launch GLP-1 products (used for diabetes and weight loss) in India and other global markets, and sees it as a major growth opportunity from FY27 onwards.

    Vohra added, “We ended the quarter with a net cash balance of Rs 10,400 crore, which we plan to use to fill gaps in our India portfolio through acquisitions, expand manufacturing capacity, and acquire specialised assets in the US and other international markets.”

    Axis Securities has a ‘Buy’ rating on Cipla, noting its focus on expanding the branded prescription business in India through new launches and a stronger sales team. It projects Cipla’s sales and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% and 7.9%, respectively, over FY26–28.

    3. Zen Technologies:

    Thisdefence company has fallen 17.9% over the past week after it announced weakQ1FY26 results. Its net profit declined 37.8% YoY to Rs 47.8 crore, while revenue fell 37.9% YoY to Rs 158.2 crore. This was a twinForecaster estimate miss. The company underperformedbecause it could not book Rs 60-70 crore in revenue this quarter as customers requested changes in product specifications, which delayed this revenue to the next quarter (Q2FY26).

    Commenting on the results, Ashok Atluri, the company's Chairman and Managing Director,said, “Regular procurements slowed down because of new emergency procurement happening post Operation Sindoor.” Regular procurements such as simulators, were slightly delayedas the Ministry of Defence prioritised emergency purchases following the operation.

    Zen Technologies remains optimistic about its future order inflow and revenue. The managementexpects an order inflow of Rs 650 crore by the end of Q2FY26, driven by anticipated orders for anti-drone systems (ADS) as part of emergency procurement. The company’s order bookstands at Rs 754.6 crore. Atlurisaid, “We are confident in maintaining our targeted cumulative revenue of Rs 6,000 crore over the next three financial years.”

    So far this year, the company has invested around Rs 160 crore in fouracquisitions to strengthen its presence in naval simulation, drones, defense robotics, and loitering munitions. These include Vector Technics, Applied Research International (ARIPL) and its affiliate ARI Labs (ALPL), Bhairav Robotics, and TISA Aerospace, which are all expected to open new areas for growth.

    Following the results, ICICI Securitiesdowngraded the stock to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, citing weaker Q1FY26 performance due to execution delays. However, it remains positive on Zen’s long-term outlook, backed by strong revenue guidance and expected order inflows. But to deliver growth, Zen must improve order flow and execute key contracts like the anti-drone system.

    4. Nestle India:

    The stock of this packaged foods company dropped 1.9% over the past week following the announcement of its Q1FY26 results. The company posted a 5.1% YoY increase in revenue, led by strong performance in the powdered & liquid beverages and breakfast cereal segments. However, net profit dropped 13.4% to Rs 646.6 crore, impacted by high input costs for milk, cocoa, and edible oil. The profit figure also missed Forecaster estimates by 18.9%, largely due to increased operational expenses from recent capacity expansions. The stock features in a screener of companies where FIIs and FPIs are raising their holdings.

    Nestle’s revenue growth in the milk products & nutrition segment remained muted, with a mid-single-digit decline in infant nutrition due to advertising restrictions and increased competition. Commenting on the category’s performance, Nestlé India Chairman and MD, Suresh Narayanan, said, “The milk and nutrition category has been hit by inflation and price hikes, limiting volume growth. It also faces strong competition from cooperatives, pressuring both volumes and pricing. We remain focused on sustainable, profitable growth and have proactively removed refined sugar from baby food to meet regulatory and consumer expectations. Portfolio challenges in this category are also being addressed.”

    The company’s e-commerce segment maintained its growth momentum, contributing 12.5% to domestic sales, driven by quick commerce and new product launches. Export revenue rose 16% YoY to Rs 214 crore, recovering from a 7% drop in Q1FY25, with solid performance in coffee, instant tea, and breakfast cereals, despite pressure from high commodity costs.

    Sharekhan maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Nestlé India but lowered the target price to Rs 2,600. The brokerage noted that Q1FY26 was weak due to multiple headwinds impacting profitability. Despite this, Nestlé’s strong domestic presence, expanding distribution & capacity, and rising out-of-home consumption position it well for growth in a stable demand environment. While volatile commodity prices are expected to pressure margins, the company’s pricing power and cost-saving efforts could help offset the impact.

    5. MphasiS:

    ThisIT consulting and software firm rose 5% on July 25 after reporting total contract value (TCV) wins of $760 million inQ1FY26, nearly double the previous quarter. AI-led deals made up 68% of the TCV, compared to 30% a year earlier. Management expects to complete these orders within the next two quarters.

    Mphasis' revenue grew 1.2% QoQ in Q1FY26, supported by strong order execution and demand for its AI-led digital transformation services. Net profit declined slightly due to a higher tax rate, and delayed client payments.

    Management noted that macro volatility and slower decision-making, influenced by tariff and geopolitical uncertainties, have delayed client spending. Despite these delays, CEO Nitin Rakesh is optimistic,saying, “We aim to grow revenue at nearly twice the industry pace in FY26, targeting over 8% growth.”

    The top four IT firms—TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, and Wipro—reported flat to mixed results in Q1FY26, as US tariff-related risks slowed deal activity. TCS’s deal wins fell 22.9% QoQ due to the BSNL contract wind-down and client payment delays, while HCLTech posted a 39.4% QoQ drop from delays in new deal closures and project ramp-downs.

    In contrast, Infosys and Wipro reported deal growth of 46.1% and 24.1% QoQ, supported by strong demand for AI, cloud, and digital transformation services across the banking, energy, and manufacturing sectors.

    Mphasis earns 13.7% of its revenue from the insurance segment, which grew 20.4% QoQ. Rakeshnotes, “We closed several deals in this segment over the past three months, turning them into revenue. Insurance has become a key growth driver, and we expect this momentum to continue in FY26, helped by large signed deals and new client wins in the pipeline.”

    Following the results, Jefferiesupgraded Mphasis to 'Buy' and raised its target price to Rs 3,100. The brokerage noted that Q1 earnings were in line with estimates, with strong deal bookings as a key positive. It expects revenue growth to improve in the near term, supported by deal wins and higher client spending in the BFSI vertical. Jefferies projects earnings per share to grow at a 12% CAGR over FY26–28.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    31 Jul 2025

    Chart of the Week: Global currencies gain ground on the US dollar, Indian rupee declines

    By Abdullah Shah

    2025 began with US President Trump launching a wave of reciprocal import tariffs on all its trading partners, sparking fears of an economic slowdown, and launching a global race to cut trade deals with the US. Just before the August 1 deadline, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports and warned of additional penalties over India’s ongoing oil and arms trade with Russia. The move has raised concerns about the future of India–US trade relations.

    The US also imposed 50% tariffs on most Brazilian goods, 19% on the Philippines, and 15% on South Korea. A flat 50% tariff was also introduced on all semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, disrupting global supply chains in manufacturing and electronics.

    The US economy has long had a reputation for policy stability. This over the decades, has made US treasuries and the dollar the chosen “safe haven” for countries globally. But these tariffs, along with Trump’s threats on Truth Social, a new deficit-busting spending bill and the Federal Reserve's slowing rate cuts, have added fresh uncertainty and weakened the dollar. 

    The Fed paused rate cuts in late 2024, but investors now expect two more cuts in the second half of 2025. Other central banks, including Brazil, Mexico and Japan, are holding rates steady. This has given the ‘carry trade’ strategy a boost, where investors borrow in low-interest currencies (like the USD) and invest in higher-yielding ones, making money off the higher interest.

    Growing concern about the country’s long-term finances is adding pressure to the US dollar. The government’s rising debt, ongoing budget deficits, and repeated political standoffs over the debt ceiling have spooked investors. In May, Moody’s downgraded the US credit outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’, warning that “persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher” without stronger fiscal policies. 

    Speaking on the deteriorating US dollar, RBC Global Asset Management’s Managing Director & Senior Portfolio Manager, Daniel Mitchell, said, “Trump's second term, we think, will come to be known as marking the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline and a momentous shift for foreign-exchange markets that will impact the broader investment landscape.”

    In this week’s Chart of the Week, we explore the dollar’s performance in 2025. The Russian ruble, euro, and Singapore dollar have gained ground. India stands out as the only major economy whose currency has weakened against the dollar. The rupee's fall is driven by foreign investor outflows, volatile crude prices, and US tariffs, all adding pressure on the Indian economy.

    Foreign outflows, oil swings and policy worries weigh on the rupee

    The Indian rupee has weakened against the US dollar in 2025, hitting an all-time low of Rs 87.7 per dollar on July 31. The decline deepened after US President Trump announced 25% import tariffs on Indian goods, excluding pharmaceuticals and electronics, effective August 1.

    The US is India’s largest export destination, generating $86 billion in FY25. These tariffs are expected to reduce Indian exports, widen the overall trade deficit, and lower demand for the rupee among US importers.

    Although global crude oil prices have stayed low, occasional spikes—driven by tensions in the Middle East—have raised India’s import costs and increased the demand for US dollars, adding further pressure on the rupee.

    Another factor weighing on the rupee is persistent selling by foreign investors. In 2025, they have remained net sellers due to a mix of weak stock performance and uncertainty over India–US trade negotiations. Add to that expectations of interest rate cuts from the RBI, and the rupee appears less attractive to global investors.

    The RBI has cut interest rates by 100 bps this year to support growth and may ease further. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve has held rates steady. While India’s rates are still higher than the US, the narrowing interest rate gap reduces the appeal of rupee-denominated assets, making dollar assets more attractive. Despite RBI’s earlier interventions in the forex market to support the rupee, these efforts have not been enough to stem its decline.

    Carry trade drives Brazilian real and Mexican peso’s appreciation against the US dollar

    The Brazilian real and Mexican peso have surged 13% and 10.9% against the US dollar in 2025, fueled by the popular ‘carry trade’ strategy.

    To combat rising inflation, Brazil hiked interest rates from 11.3% in November 2024 to 15% by June 2025—far above the US rate of 4.5%. This wide interest rate gap attracted global investors seeking higher returns.

    The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has also kept rates relatively high, cutting gradually to 8% in June 2025 from 11.3% in 2023. Despite the drop, the rate remains attractive compared to the US.

    Additionally, Mexico is benefiting from the nearshoring trend, as companies shift supply chains closer to the US, driving foreign investment into its manufacturing sector and boosting exports.

    Eurozone’s euro & UK’s pound get a boost from foreign investments

    The Eurozone’s euro and the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) British pound improved by 10.6% and 5.9%, respectively against the US dollar in 2025. The Eurozone and the UK have seen strong growth in foreign investments during the year. The Eurozone won investments in the green initiatives and AI infrastructure sectors, while the UK attracted investments in the real estate, fintech, and green energy sectors. 

    The Eurozone’s European Central Bank (ECB) cut its policy rate to 2.2%, but indicated that there will be no further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the UK’s Bank of England (BoE) kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.3% in its meeting in June, citing persistent inflation in the services sector.

    The UK’s GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 was stronger than expected, outperforming other G7 economies and reinforcing confidence in its ability to withstand global pressures, further driving the momentum of the British pound.

    Yen recovers, yuan holds firm as Asian currencies strengthen

    Japan’s yen is making a comeback in 2025 after hitting record lows last year. In January, the Bank of Japan raised its interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, its biggest hike since 2007, ending years of ultra-low rates. This move has encouraged global investors to return to Japanese bond markets. At the same time, large domestic investors, such as insurers and pension funds, are bringing money back home to invest locally. 

    The Chinese yuan has remained stable in 2025 despite ongoing concerns about economic growth. While foreign investors have largely stayed away, the Chinese government has rolled out new stimulus measures to revive demand. State-owned banks have stepped in to support the yuan when needed. This combination of targeted support and early signs of recovery has helped keep the currency steady.

    The Singapore dollar has risen 5.5% this year. With low inflation and no major policy shifts, investors continue to see it as a safe and dependable currency.

    The Australian dollar is also holding up well in 2025, backed by strong global demand for commodities, especially iron ore. China’s consistent need for Australian iron ore has been a key driver. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates unchanged this year, which has further supported the currency.

    The Russian ruble surges against the US dollar, backed by a high policy rate

    The Russian ruble (RUB) has endured extreme volatility against the US dollar since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It initially plunged to RUB 134 per dollar in February 2022 due to sweeping Western sanctions. 

    Aggressive countermeasures by the Russian Central Bank, including strict capital controls and demands for ruble payments for natural gas, coupled with high energy prices, led to a remarkable recovery to RUB 54.2 by June 2022.

    From that peak, the ruble depreciated steadily, hitting RUB 110.4 per dollar in January 2025, influenced by declining export revenues, rising imports, and new US sanctions. Yet, 2025 has brought a rebound, with the ruble strengthening to RUB 77.2 per dollar by May. The general weakening of the US dollar, combined with the Russian Central Bank's high 18% policy rate, has made the ruble a more attractive currency to hold.

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    The Baseline
    31 Jul 2025
    The twenty year winners among sectoral indices | Screener: Stocks with rising momentum

    The twenty year winners among sectoral indices | Screener: Stocks with rising momentum

    By Tejas MD

    Earnings season is underway, and no one is bursting fireworks yet. The early performance has been muted.

    Heavyweights such as Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank took hits after reporting disappointing results. On the other hand, Eternal (Zomato) surprised with good numbers, thanks to its quick commerce segment Blinkit growing rapidly, and the stock shot up.

    Overall, the mood on the street is not super upbeat.

    The mixed earnings have weighed on sentiment, and the Nifty 50 is down 3% in July. But if you zoom out, the bigger picture still looks good: the index is up 4.5% for 2025 and on course for its tenth straight year of gains. Over the past two decades, it has ended the year in the red only three times. 

    The positive trend for the Nifty is expected to continue in 2025. Nomura Research says, “With Indian fundamentals holding up amid global weakness, we’ve raised our Nifty target to 26,140 as select domestic-oriented sectors continue to outperform”. 

    Looking past the short-term, have the top sectoral Nifty indices beaten the Nifty50 in the past few years? Let’s find out.

    In this week’s Analytics,

    • Sectoral plays: Which Nifty index comes out on top?

    • Screener: Stocks outperforming the Nifty over the past year, with rising momentum scores


    Two decades of sector performance: what worked, what didn't?

    Over the last five years, investors seeking returns have been drawn to sectors such as Nifty Realty, Nifty Auto, and Nifty Metal, which have delivered impressive absolute returns. Six out of eight major sectoral indices beat the benchmark Nifty 50 over this period.

    Nifty Realty and Metal lead in 5Yr gains—But do they hold up over time?

    But if we dig deeper using Trendlyne’s share price analysis tool and check performance through the lens of risk-adjusted returns and a 20 year period, a different picture takes shape.

    Returns vs risk: Nifty Healthcare and Consumer Durables race ahead

    To get a clear view of sector performance, we analysed the median return and standard deviation of top sectoral indices over the last twenty years, covering multiple market upcycles and downturns.

    If we just look at the previous chart, Nifty Realty looks like a star performer with the highest five year gain. But it is also one of the most volatile indices. Its median return is just 5%, the lowest among the eight, compared to the Nifty 50’s 13.5%. 

    Realty also has the second-highest standard deviation, signaling a moody index that takes its investors on a roller coaster ride. When it does well, it's spectacular. When it does badly, it is a portfolio killer. During the 2008 housing crash, it tanked 83% in a single year, a stark reminder of its cyclical nature.

    Nifty Healthcare and FMCG deliver high median returns with lower volatility 

    In contrast, the Nifty Consumer Durables and Nifty Healthcare indices stand out for their strength and stability. Consumer Durables delivered a strong median return of 23%, while Healthcare followed with 18%, both comfortably ahead of the broader index.

    What sets Healthcare apart is not just return, but risk. With a standard deviation even lower than the Nifty 50, it offers a rare mix of high returns and low volatility—a stable combination for long-term investors. Everyone needs healthcare, even during lean times.

    Beating the cycles: who is the 20 year outperformer?

    If you are looking for consistency, look no further than the Nifty 50 itself.

    Over the past 20 years, the index has ended in the red in only three years: 2008, 2011, and 2015. It's now on track for a tenth consecutive year of gains.

    Among sectoral indices, Nifty FMCG has been the most stable, closing in the green in 80% of the 20 years. 

    Nifty 50: the king of consistent yearly gains over the past 20 years

    Nifty FMCG has shown its defensive strength during volatile periods, posting positive returns in both 2011 and 2015, when the Nifty 50 fell. In 2011, it outperformed the benchmark by a staggering 32 percentage points, cementing its reputation as a go-to sector in uncertain times.

    When it comes to outperformance, Bank Nifty comes out on top, beating the Nifty 50 in 14 out of 20 years. Consumer Durables and Auto follow closely, outperforming in 13 of those years.

    Which sector is in the spotlight now?

    Over the past year, only Nifty Healthcare and Nifty Bank have emerged as the major sectoral indices that outperformed the Nifty 50. Interestingly, both carry lower beta than the index, meaning they are less sensitive to market swings.

    Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said “Optimism is building around the possibility of a favorable India-US trade deal, especially after the trade deal between the US and European Union (EU) suggests lower-than-expected tariff rates. This could help ease uncertainty around Indian pharma exports”.

    Nifty Healthcare and Bank Nifty: The only major indices that beat the Nifty 50 last year

    What about valuations? Only two Nifty indices, the Bank Nifty and Nifty Metal, trade at a lower P/E ratio than the Nifty 50. 

    Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty trade below their 5-year average with lower PEs

    Nifty Bank has the lowest PE ratio among major indices, and still ranks as the best performer over the last year. 

    What’s powering the market: Sector leaders and stock outperformers

    Of the two indices that outperformed the Nifty 50 in the past year, Nifty Healthcare shows broader strength, with 12 of its 20 stocks in the green.

    While Bank Nifty is the top performer, it is heavily reliant on HDFC Bank’s 24% surge. Just five of its 12 constituents posted gains, with the rest dragging.

    Nifty Healthcare’s momentum is driven by strong domestic pharma demand, global contract manufacturing growth, and easing US pricing pressures. Laurus Labs, Glenmark Pharma and Divi’s Labs are benefiting from these tailwinds. 

    Hospital stocks, such as Fortis and Max Healthcare, are also among the top performers, driven by rising patient volumes, increased bed capacity, and higher revenue per bed.

    Nifty Healthcare outpaces Nifty 50 with broad-based momentum

    Over the past year, banking stocks have benefited from strong net interest income, falling repo rate, low NPAs, and digital upgrades. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Au Small Finance Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Federal Bank are the top-performing stocks in the Bank Nifty over the past year. Kotak Mahindra Bank makes it to the list despite falling sharply post its weak results. 


    Screener: Stocks outperforming the Nifty over the past year with rising momentum scores

    Laurus Labs, Syrma SGS have the highest Trendlyne momentum

    With the Indian markets under pressure in July, we look at stocks with strong price growth, which are seeing a rise in momentum. This screener shows stocks outperforming the Nifty over the past year, and gaining over five years, with growing Trendlyne momentum scores. 

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the pharmaceuticals, healthcare facilities, asset management, housing finance, iron & steel products, and capital markets industries. Major stocks in the screener are Laurus Labs, Syrma SGS Technology, SBI Life Insurance, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, HDFC Asset Management, Fortis Healthcare, UPL, and Anand Rath Wealth. 

    Syrma SGS Technologies has the highest Trendlyne momentum score of 70.8, with the stock rising 56.9% over the past month. This electrical equipment company’s Q1FY26 net profit surged 157.8% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates by 28.5%. An improvement in product mix, driven by reduced contribution from the lower margin consumer segment (34% of revenue vs 53% in Q1FY25) and increased contribution from the higher margin automotive and industrial segments, helped net profit to grow.

    However, its revenue declined 18.3% YoY due to a reduction in the consumer and railways segments. But this is in line with the management’s aim to reduce the consumer segment’s contribution to 30% of revenue in FY26.

    Laurus Labs also shows up in the screener with a Trendlyne momentum score of 69.5. This pharma stock surged 102.6% over the past year. The company’s momentum increased after its Q1FY26 net profit and revenue jumped 13x and 32% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates by 55.1% and 8.2%, respectively. Its revenue growth outpaced the rise in expenses, helping improve profitability. On the other hand, improvements across the contract development & manufacturing organisation (CDMO) and generics businesses drove revenue growth. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    30 Jul 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 29, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 29, 2025

    By Omkar Chitnis

    1. Dixon Technologies:

    Emkay maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this consumer electronics company with a target price of Rs 19,000, a 13.2% upside. Analysts Chirag Jain and Jaimin Desai note that Dixon is expanding its smartphone manufacturing capacity to over 45 million units by FY26, up from 28.3 million in FY25, driven by in-house manufacturing and a strong order book.

    Analysts believe that the company’s in-house manufacturing, including display modules, camera modules, and precision components, along with its upcoming facility expansion, will reduce dependency on external suppliers and improve profitability across the value chain. For FY26, Dixon has planned a capital expenditure of Rs 1,200 crore to scale up its camera and display module capacities.

    Management highlights that Dixon is diversifying into higher-value segments by focusing on assembling printed circuit boards (PCBs) for industrial and automotive applications. Analysts expect this move will help Dixon tap into new demand segments and expand its customer base beyond consumer electronics.

    The company is also gaining traction in third-party manufacturing for brands such as Panasonic, Samsung and Motorola across its home appliances, consumer electronics, and IT hardware segments, supported by a strong order book. Analysts expect healthy volume growth in H2FY26, driven by festive demand and rising orders from new brands. They forecast revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of 28% and 50% respectively, by FY28.

    2. Mastek:

    Geojit BNP Paribas has a ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting & software firm, with a target price of Rs 3,260, a 32.9% upside. Mastek reported revenue of Rs 915 crore in Q1FY26, up 12.5% YoY, led by strong growth in the UK and Europe. Its UK healthcare segment benefited from digital upgrades under the national health service, supported by a £10 billion government investment in electronic records.

    The company's 12-month order backlog increased 8.3% to Rs 2,348 crore, supported by steady demand for digital engineering, data analytics, and Oracle-led projects in the healthcare and commercial sectors. Management expects deal activity to pick up in the second half of the year as recent go-to-market investments, new leadership hires, and sales team expansion begin to show results.

    Analysts are optimistic on Mastek due to its strong client relationships and healthy order pipeline, projecting 13.7% revenue growth and 15.3% net profit growth over FY26–27.

    3. PCBL Chemical:

    Prabhudas Lilladhar initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this refinery company, with a target price of Rs 474, a 21.2% upside. In Q1FY26, revenue declined 1.6% YoY to Rs 2,119 crore, due to lower carbon black (CB) sales volume and weak realisations. Net profit fell 20.3% to Rs 94 crore, primarily due to higher employee expenses and depreciation.

    The management expects strong opportunities for PCBL in North America and Europe following the shutdown of Luxembourg-based carbon black manufacturer Orion's facilities. The company plans to add 20,000 metric tonnes per annum (MTPA) of specialty black capacity at Mundra, increasing the total to 132,000 MTPA by the end of FY26.

    Kaushik Roy, M.D, notes, "We aim to achieve 1 million tons of CB capacity by FY28. To support this, we have planned a capital expenditure of Rs 3,500 crore over the next five years to expand manufacturing capacity and increase exports to Europe and the US.

    Analysts Saurabh Ahire and Swarnendu Bhushan expect CB volumes to grow 8% in FY26, supported by capacity expansion. They project EBITDA per tonne to rise to Rs 20,392 from Rs 17,791, led by a higher contribution from specialty products.

    Analysts Ahire and Bhushan note that PCBL is expanding its specialty carbon black capacity and entering high-margin segments such as superconductivity-grade carbon black, acetylene black, and nano silicon. These additions are expected to enhance the product mix and improve the margin per tonne. They estimate PCBL’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 14% and 36%, respectively, over FY26–FY27.

    4. HDFC Bank:

    IDBI Capital maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 2,250, indicating an 11.3% upside. In Q1FY26, the bank’s net interest margin (NIM) dropped 11 basis points YoY to 3.3% due to rising deposit costs and the impact of policy rate cuts. The management expects NIMs to normalise in the range of 3.5-3.6% by the end of FY27.

    Analyst Bunty Chawla notes that in Q1FY26, the bank reported muted growth in net interest income (NII) amid a slowdown in loan growth. Despite this, substantial other income from the HDB stake sale boosted operating profit by 49%. The bank’s gross non-performing assets increased seven bps YoY to 1.4%, led by higher slippages during the quarter.

    The management highlighted that the bank’s credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio improved to 95% from 110% in FY24, driven by strong deposit growth. They aim to reduce the CD ratio to around 85% by FY27. 

    Analysts expect short-term pressure on NIM due to slower loan growth, as the bank prioritises strengthening its balance sheet over aggressive lending, but Chawla maintains a positive long-term outlook. They project NII to grow at a CAGR of 11% over FY26–27, supported by stable asset quality and stronger credit growth.

    5. CreditAccess Grameen:

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this microfinance NBFC with a target price of Rs 1,400, a 23.6% upside. Analysts Renish Bhuva, Chintan Shah, and Gaurav Toshniwal highlight that the company performed better than most of its peers. Its credit cost was 8% in FY25, significantly lower than the industry average of over 10%, indicating a stronger asset quality and a resilient business model.

    Analysts also believe that while the rest of the industry struggles with high costs from risky loans, CreditAccess Grameen is positioned for better results. This is due to its stable repayment trends, improving collections and limited stress from newer loans.

    The company's management reports that although microfinance is still its core business, it is expanding into other areas like retail lending. This move helps to diversify its services and reduce overall financial risk. Consequently, the share of non-microfinance loans has more than doubled YoY in Q1FY26, now making up 6.8% of the business.

    CA Grameen’s total provisions (safety fund for bad loans) declined for the third quarter in a row, which helped its net profit grow by 27% in Q1. Following this trend, analysts expect the company's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 76% over FY26–27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    25 Jul 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 25, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 25, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. One97 Communications (Paytm):

    This fintech firm surged 6.8% over the past week after reporting a net profit of Rs 123 crore in Q1 FY26, its first quarter without any one-off gains. This was significantly above Forecaster's estimates, primarily due to cost optimisation and an increase in payment revenue. The company reported revenue growth of 32% YoY, driven by a jump in payment processing margins. The firm’s share price has gone up by 134% over the past year.

    Paytm sharply reduced its expenses in Q1. Marketing and promotional expenses fell more than half YoY, while employee benefits declined by a third. These cost cuts helped the company post a positive EBITDA margin of 3.8%. CFO Madhur Deora said Paytm is working towards achieving a 15–20% EBITDA margin over the next two to three years, which is quite a hill to climb from the current level. In Q1, contribution margin stood at 60%, up meaningfully due to the upfront profitability of its non-default loss guarantee (non-DLG) lending model.

    Under this new model, Paytm no longer bears the risk of customer defaults on loans issued via its platform, unlike its earlier default loss guarantee structure. According to Citi, this transition has played a key role in the stronger contribution margin. With loan penetration still low across its ecosystem, management sees ample room to scale its financial services business, especially in merchant lending.

    With a 35% market share, the company currently serves 1.3 crore merchants who pay for devices and value-added services. CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma sees much broader potential here. “We see the potential of over 10 crore merchants who will accept payments, and believe that, over a period of time, 40–50% of these merchants will need subscription services for managing their business needs,” he said during the earnings call.

    Emkay Global maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the company with a higher target price of Rs 1,350. The brokerage expects the company’s valuation to improve as it sustains profitability and expands its payments and financial services businesses. Emkay also highlights Paytm’s strong cash reserves and long-term growth potential as key positives in the current risk-reward equation.

    2. Newgen Software Technologies:

    ThisIT solutions company fell 17% over the past week after posting weakQ1FY26 results. The company's net profit plunged 54% QoQ to Rs 49.7 crore, while revenue dropped 21.2% QoQ to Rs 350 crore, and both missedforecaster estimates. The company underperformed across all regions.

    The revenue miss wasdue to delays in closing large deals and cautious spending by clients amid global economic and geopolitical challenges. As a result, clients took longer to finalise purchases. License sales were particularly affected by a slowdown in large-scale license deals, especially from the banking sector. Virender Jeet, CEO of the company,said, “The number 1 challenge for us right now is the deal size. And that is the only difference that has happened in the business.”

    The Indian businessdeclined 28%, while the Middle East businessfell by 25%. Both regionscontribute around 30% each to overall revenue. In India, demand from large private and public sector banks slowed down as major deals were already completed. In the Middle East, operations were disrupted by visa and travel restrictions in Saudi Arabia during the Hajj period, delaying deal closures and project execution.

    To offset the slowdown in large deals, the company aims to increase the number of smaller deals to around 100, up from the current 60-70. It is also focussing on winning more deals in newer growth areas like fintech and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs).

    In this quarter, the companyadded 12 new clients, a tally management considers healthy and in line with previous quarters. However, the averagedeal size was lower. Managementviews Q1 as an exception and expects growth to pick up in H2FY26. They believe the deal pipeline is strong and closures will improve as local issues like Saudi visa delays ease.

    Following the results, IDBI Capitaldowngraded the stock to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, citing near-term execution challenges and delays in large deal closures. However, it still remains positive on the company’s long-term prospects, supported by strong annuity growth, rising AI adoption, and a healthy pipeline across key verticals. But to get a boost from these, Newgen would need to beat the competition in deal closures.

    3. Indian Energy Exchange (IEX):

    Thiscapital markets company fell 30% on July 24 after the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)announced a plan to change pricing regulation. CERC plans to overhaul electricity pricing through a market coupling mechanism across three power exchanges, starting from January 2026, rather than allowing IEX to determine price independently. 

    Market coupling is a model in which buy and sell bids from all power exchanges in the country are aggregated and matched to discover a uniform market clearing price (MCP) for electricity across regions. It will also mean that there will be only one price for the electricity traded at any point in time across exchanges. 

    Out of the three power exchanges—IEX, Power Exchange India, and Hindustan Power Exchange—IEX enjoys a 90% market share in electricity trading volumes. Currently, each power exchange collects buy and sell bids and discovers its own MCP. 

    IEX derives 75% of its revenue from the real-time market and the day-ahead market segments (bids placed one day before). The implementation of a centralised mechanism reduces IEX’s independent pricing power and limits its ability to command higher trading margins, which in turn weighs on its revenue.

    Rohit Bajaj, Joint Managing Director, notes, "The market coupling order will impact the business, and we expect a drop in volumes when the norms take effect from January 2026. If competition rises, we plan to reduce transaction charges to stay competitive and retain the leadership position in the market."

    The implementation of market coupling enables generation companies to sell electricity to distribution companies in the day-ahead market, serving as an alternative to long-term power purchase agreements. This mechanism will benefit end consumers by reducing overall electricity tariffs.

    Rupesh Sankhe, senior vice president for research at Elara Capital, says, "IEX currently holds a monopoly position in the day-ahead market. The implementation of market coupling is a major negative, and the company could lose nearly half its market share in the day-ahead segment and 25% of its overall revenues."

    The company's revenue rose 19.2% YoY in Q1FY26, and net profit rose 25.1% YoY, driven by higher electricity trading volumes and renewable energy certificates.

    Following CERC’s announcement, Bernstein reduced its price target to Rs 122 from Rs 160, while maintaining a 'Market-Perform' rating. The brokerage notes that IEX’s liquidity moat and market position have weakened, and the only way to compete now is through transaction fees.

    4. Havells India:

    This electrical equipment company rose over 3% on July 22 after Chairman & MD Anil Gupta outlined plans to use surplus cash to build capacity and enter newer geographies. Havells has already used part of its cash to build renewable energy capacity and secure a stable supply of solar equipment. He added that the company’s move into renewable energy aligns with its recent investments and expansion efforts.

    However, Gupta flagged that it will take at least one more quarter for inventories to return to normal, both at factories and with dealers. Demand dropped this year as the strong monsoon limited summer sales, unlike last year when a hotter summer helped clear stock faster. As a result, the June quarter was more difficult, which is reflected in the Q1 results.

    Havells' revenue fell 6% YoY in Q1, and net profit dropped 15% to Rs 348 crore due to the weak performance of its subsidiary Lloyd, and the electrical consumer durables segment. This was mainly due to an unexpectedly mild summer that lowered demand for cooling products. The cables & wires segment was a bright spot, helped by demand from infrastructure and industrial projects.

    Executive Director Rajiv Goel said, “The challenges in Q1FY26 were transitory. We’re optimistic about Lloyd’s outlook over FY26 to Q1FY27 as demand and inventories improve. These inventory changes shouldn’t affect our margins in the coming quarters.”

    He also noted that the solar business earned Rs 500 crore in FY25 and is expected to generate Rs 1,000–1,500 crore over the next couple of years. Havells has invested Rs 600 crore in Goldi Solar, a Gujarat-based panel manufacturer, to support this growth. The company aims to fully integrate solar module manufacturing, along with related supply chain operations, within 18 months.

    Post results, ICICI Securities gave a ‘Buy’ rating, saying the dip in sales is temporary and doesn’t affect Havells’ long-term potential. The brokerage expects the company to gain market share, as smaller and unorganised players face pressure. It projects the company’s revenue and net profit to grow at 11.1% and 18.4% annually over FY26–27.

    5. Nuvoco Vistas Corp:

    This cement & cement products company hit a 52-week high of Rs 417 on July 18, driven by strong Q1 FY26 results. The company reported a 9.3% YoY revenue jump, fueled by higher pricing and 6% YoY volume growth. It surpassed Forecaster estimates by 1.9%, as pure cement realization grew 5.5% QoQ due to price hikes in the eastern region since March. The stock also appears on a screener of stocks with high momentum scores.

    The company achieved a net profit of Rs 133.2 crore this quarter, a significant turnaround from last year's Rs 2.8 crore loss, thanks to lower material costs and reduced operational spending. Its EBITDA per tonne surged 42% YoY to Rs 1,019 on the back of stable fuel costs. The company plans to further cut operating costs by Rs 50 per tonne in FY26 by using efficient manufacturing processes and achieving faster turnaround times. Additionally, their Odisha plant is expected to be operational by Q3FY26, with all its primary cement material transported by rail lines.

    Nuvoco Managing Director, Jayakumar Krishnaswamy, forecasts a 7-10% growth for the cement industry in FY26, expecting a significant surge after the monsoon season. He believes that the central government's substantial Rs 11 lakh crore capital expenditure plan will drive infrastructure development during the fiscal year.

    Mr. Krishnaswamy noted a rise in slag cement prices in eastern India, driven by the growth of composite cement manufacturers in the region. He mentioned that slag cement availability is likely to remain tight in the coming quarters, leading to a notable increase in auction prices compared to three years ago. He also highlighted Nuvoco's strategic move, securing a 20-year contract with Tata Steel for 2.5 million tons of slag cement, covering 55–60% of its requirements.

    PL Capital observes that Nuvoco, which holds 75% of its capacity in East India, has experienced improved prices since February, anticipating stronger demand. Although the monsoon season might temporarily slow demand and affect pricing until September, the brokerage expects a less severe decline than last year, bolstered by projected higher government capital expenditure and robust rural demand. Based on this outlook, PL Capital maintains an 'Accumulate' rating for Nuvoco, increasing its target price to Rs 422.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    24 Jul 2025

    Chart of the Week: FIIs shift focus to India’s domestic market

    By Abdullah Shah


    Foreign investors took a step back from Indian markets in the second half of 2024, spooked by weak earnings, high valuations and global conflicts. Rising US yields also pulled money out of emerging markets. In the months that followed, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) became increasingly selective in their exposure to Indian markets.

    That caution has only grown in 2025 with Donald Trump's return to the White House. This is despite falling inflation, the Reserve Bank of India's repo rate cuts and signs of economic recovery. Investors have to weigh these positives against Trump’s unpredictable moves, including aggressive tariffs. His threats, followed by walkbacks of the same threats, have kept global markets nervous and investors on their toes.

    In India, FII flows have turned sharply sector-specific. Since July 2024, FIIs have sold equities worth Rs 82,121 crore overall. But they have selectively increased their bets in sectors that benefit from domestic demand, policy visibility, or structural reforms, while exiting those exposed to global risks.

    VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, remarked, “Whenever valuations go beyond a particular level, FIIs turn sellers, and they sell aggressively. In March and April, the markets declined and valuations became reasonably attractive. So FIIs started buying in April, May, and June.”

    This week’s Chart of the Week looks at how FIIs are shifting their bets across sectors. They are now making domestic-focused bets in telecom, financial services and overall services, while cautiously returning to power and oil & gas. Meanwhile, they continue to exit the FMCG, healthcare, and IT sectors. Amid global uncertainty, the tilt toward domestic growth is clear.

    From global to local: FIIs pivot to the domestic market

    FIIs have turned their attention to the telecom sector since the start of 2025, investing Rs 26,919 crore, compared to a Rs 270 crore divestment in the second half of 2024.

    Favourable conditions in the sector, including rate hikes by telecom companies, strong 5G rollout, and a government push, have attracted investors. The telecom sector generates the majority of its revenue from the domestic market, making it less exposed to global uncertainties, like the impending import tariffs being proposed by President Trump.

    After a prolonged period of increased competition and low tariffs, telecom service providers introduced rate hikes in 2024, which helped improve the average revenue per user (ARPU). 

    Reports also suggest another 10-12% hike later in 2025, showing further potential for growth in ARPU. Under the National Telecom Policy 2025, the Indian government aims to double telecom exports and achieve 100% 4G and 90% 5G coverage by 2030. This is expected to attract investments of up to Rs 1.5 lakh crore in telecom infrastructure. 

    Financial services is another domestic sector benefiting from FII interest, with FII investments turning bullish in 2025. After divesting Rs 31,940 in January and February, FIIs invested Rs 46,477 crore in the sector during March-July. 

    Investor confidence in domestic lending growth and consumption-linked banking activity drove these investments. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut the repo rate three times in 2025 so far, bringing it down to 5.5%, prompting FIIs to favour Indian equities over debt instruments. 

    Services is another sector that derives the majority of its revenue from the domestic market. FIIs have turned positive on this sector in 2025, investing Rs 10,027 crore so far compared to a net sales of Rs 447 crore in the second half of 2024.

    Oil & gas and healthcare see mixed FII sentiment due to global uncertainties

    After an eight-month selling streak in the oil & gas sector, FIIs turned net buyers in May-July 2025. FIIs have made a net investment of Rs 836 crore in the sector so far in 2025. 

    Global oil prices fluctuated in 2024 due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances. US sanctions on Russian crude oil and domestic policy adjustments, including changes in subsidies and taxation, added to uncertainty. However, Brent crude oil prices hovering around $70 per barrel, and reports suggesting a Rs 35,000 crore compensation from the government to oil marketing companies (OMCs) have led FIIs to resume investments in the sector in 2025. 

    FII sentiment on the healthcare sector shifted to bearish in 2025. FIIs infused Rs 21,716 crore during the second half of 2024, compared to Rs 10,247 crore in divestments so far in 2025. The sell-off started after President Donald Trump threatened the Indian healthcare companies with import tariffs earlier in the year. 

    Recently, President Trump threatened to impose a 200% import tariff on Indian pharmaceutical companies on July 9, after giving them 12-18 months to set up manufacturing facilities in the US. The Indian healthcare industry generated $9 billion (~ Rs 76,831 crore) in sales from the US in FY25. 

    Amit Kumar, Research Analyst at HDFC Institutional Equities, said, “Indian healthcare peers, already operating on thin margins in the US generics, may struggle to absorb costs without passing them on to US consumers or insurers and face heightened risks of margin compression.”

    FIIs eye India again amid cooling inflation, but tech still out of favour

    Foreign investors often view the auto, consumer services, and IT sectors as a barometer of India’s economic prospects. These segments are closely tied to both domestic consumption and global trends, so they quickly reflect shifts in foreign investment sentiment. 

    FIIs remained net sellers in the auto and consumer services sectors from September 2024. Their pullback reflected concerns about high inflation and rising interest rates, which typically reduce demand for non-essential goods like vehicles and services.

    That trend now appears to be reversing. FIIs have started returning to these sectors due to easing inflation and recent rate cuts by the RBI, which could boost consumer spending.

    Tech stocks, however, continue to face pressure. FIIs have been selling consistently amid weak global demand and tighter tech budgets in key markets like the US and Europe. 

    Investors also shifted capital to Chinese stocks during September and October 2024, which had shown signs of recovery, supported by government stimulus and more attractive valuations. An IT sector analyst said, “If the revenue and earnings growth are in single digits, it is difficult to justify higher valuations in the IT sector. This is the reason for higher outflows by FIIs from the sector.”

    Are FIIs shifting defensive bets from FMCG to power?

    Foreign investors have continued to reduce their exposure to the FMCG and power sectors over the last two quarters of FY25, despite both being traditionally viewed as defensive plays during uncertain times. This suggests that FIIs are now focusing more on growth opportunities than on sticking solely to safe and stable sectors.

    FII sentiment toward the power sector remained weak until March 2025 due to the poor financial health of power distribution companies, which often delay payments because of persistent losses. But now, there's a shift in mood.

    FIIs turned buyers in July 2025, encouraged by signs of quicker policy action and faster execution of large projects. The ongoing rollout of smart meters has also lifted sentiment, as it promises better billing efficiency and improved cash flow for discoms (distribution companies). Analysts believe these changes could bring more predictability to the sector, making it more appealing for long-term investors.

    High food inflation continues to weigh on the FMCG sector during Q3 and Q4 of FY24, particularly by eroding rural demand, which accounts for nearly 35-40% of total sales for many companies. At the same time, rising input costs have squeezed profit margins, as firms have struggled to pass on the burden to consumers fully. Commenting on the recent trends, Saugata Gupta, MD & CEO of Marico, said, “During the quarter, consumer sentiment stayed mostly stable, with some improvement in rural demand and mixed trends in urban areas. However, margins remained under pressure from input costs. Cooling inflation offers some hope for better consumption ahead.”

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